FIND AN EXPERT
Let us connect you with
the right broker for you.
the right broker for you.
Contact Us
FIND AN EXPERT
Drop your contact info below, and we'll be in touch. Contact Us
Spectacular Gain in Canadian Employment in August
Jackson Middleton • September 6, 2019
Canadian job growth rebounds sharply in August following three consecutive months of weakness.
Canadian Jobs Surge Following a Three-Month Slowdown
The Bank of Canada's reticence to signal coming rate cuts has been vindicated by the rebounding jobs report released today for August. Following a strong posting for real GDP growth in the second quarter, Canadian job growth surprised on the upside with a gain of 81,100 in August. The August job gains were one of the best months on record in August, a surprising show of strength by a labour market that has relentlessly powered the country’s expansion. Over the past year, employment increased 471,000--up 2.5%--the most since 2003. Full-time employment rose +306,000 or +2.5% over the past year, while part-time work increased +165,000 or +4.8%. Over the same period, hours worked rose by 1.2%.
Last month's job gains were mostly in part-time work. The unemployment rate remained at 5.7% as discouraged workers returned to the labour market, helping to mitigate the fear of worker shortages. The bulk of the employment increase last month was in Ontario and Quebec, where the jobless rate fell to 4.7% in Quebec and 5.6% in Ontario (see table below). The Quebec economy and housing markets have been on a roll this year.
The number of private-sector employees increased in August, more than offsetting the decline in July.
There were more people employed in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; educational services; and in professional, scientific and technical services. In contrast, employment declined in business, building and other support services.
Last month's job gains were mostly in part-time work. The unemployment rate remained at 5.7% as discouraged workers returned to the labour market, helping to mitigate the fear of worker shortages. The bulk of the employment increase last month was in Ontario and Quebec, where the jobless rate fell to 4.7% in Quebec and 5.6% in Ontario (see table below). The Quebec economy and housing markets have been on a roll this year.
The number of private-sector employees increased in August, more than offsetting the decline in July.
There were more people employed in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; educational services; and in professional, scientific and technical services. In contrast, employment declined in business, building and other support services.
The rebound in the housing market in most provinces since the end of the first quarter boosted the finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing sector, bringing the year-over-year (y/y) gain to 3.9%. The increase in August was in Quebec and Ontario. Construction employment increased by 8.4% y/y in Quebec and 4.3% in Ontario. Housing-related jobs in the service sector (finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing) posted y/y gains of 5.5% in Ontario and 2.7% in Quebec.
In direct contrast, the BC housing market's slowdown took its toll. Construction jobs fell y/y by -0.3%, although housing-related service sector jobs rose a still-strong 4.5% y/y.
Wage gains slowed but remained strong. Hourly pay was up 3.7% in August from a year earlier. While that’s down from 4.5% in July, it’s still well above average in recent years. Permanent worker pay slowed to an annual pace of 3.8%.
Bottom Line: Overall, today’s jobs numbers will leave the BoC comfortable with the neutral stance it took this week. Markets seem to agree, with the Canadian dollar strengthening further this morning.
Wage gains slowed but remained strong. Hourly pay was up 3.7% in August from a year earlier. While that’s down from 4.5% in July, it’s still well above average in recent years. Permanent worker pay slowed to an annual pace of 3.8%.
Bottom Line: Overall, today’s jobs numbers will leave the BoC comfortable with the neutral stance it took this week. Markets seem to agree, with the Canadian dollar strengthening further this morning.
US Jobs Report Disappoints
In contrast, business hiring stumbled in August in the US, likely confirming expectations for a second straight Federal Reserve interest-rate cut when they meet again September 17-18. The jobless rate held steady at 3.7%, and wage growth ticked lower but held above 3%.
Although the unemployment rate held steady at multi-decade lows, the headline employment gain of 130,000 was disappointing. Private payrolls rose 96,000, a three-month low, after a downwardly revised 131,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department reportFriday that trailed the median estimate of economists for a 150,000 gain. Total nonfarm payrolls climbed a below-forecast 130,000, which was boosted by 25,000 temporary government workers to prepare for the 2020 Census count.
Although the unemployment rate held steady at multi-decade lows, the headline employment gain of 130,000 was disappointing. Private payrolls rose 96,000, a three-month low, after a downwardly revised 131,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department reportFriday that trailed the median estimate of economists for a 150,000 gain. Total nonfarm payrolls climbed a below-forecast 130,000, which was boosted by 25,000 temporary government workers to prepare for the 2020 Census count.
Fears abound that economic growth in the US is slowing under the weight of escalating international trade tensions and the slowdown in the global economy. Calls may grow for the Fed to cut interest rates this month by a half-point instead of a quarter-point.
The US manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of struggling, and the White House continues to pressure the Fed about the need for even more aggressive interest rate cuts. As well, the payroll figures showed weakness in several sectors. Manufacturing added an anemic 3,000 jobs, and retailers cut positions for a seventh straight month and education and health services hired the fewest people since February.
This article was written by DLC's Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper
RECENT POSTS
Did you know there’s a program that allows you to use your RRSP to help come up with your downpayment to buy a home? It’s called the Home Buyer’s Plan (or HBP for short), and it’s made possible by the government of Canada. While the program is pretty straightforward, there are a few things you need to know. Your first home (with some exceptions) To qualify, you need to be buying your first home. However, when you look into the fine print, you find that technically, you must not have owned a home in the last four years or have lived in a house that your spouse owned in the previous four years. Another exception is for those with a disability or those helping someone with a disability. In this case, you can withdraw from an RRSP for a home purchase at any time. You have to pay back the RRSP You have 15 years to pay back the RRSP, and you start the second year after the withdrawal. While you won’t pay any tax on this particular withdrawal, it does come with some conditions. You’ll have to pay back the total amount you withdrew over 15 years. The CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account every year to advise how much you owe the RRSP that year. Your repayments will not count as contributions as you’ve already received the tax break from those funds. Access to funds The funds you withdraw from the RRSP must have been there for at least 90 days. You can still technically withdraw the money from your RRSP and use it for your down-payment, but it won’t be tax-deductible and won’t be part of the HBP. You can access up to $35,000 individually or $70,00 per couple through the HBP. Please connect anytime if you’d like to know more about the HBP and how it could work for you as you plan your downpayment. It would be a pleasure to work with you.
If you’re new to the home buying process, it’s easy to get confused by some of the terms used. The purpose of this article is to clear up any confusion between the deposit and downpayment. What is a deposit? The deposit is the money included with a purchase contract as a sign of good faith when you offer to purchase a property. It’s the “consideration” that helps make up the contract and binds you to the agreement. Typically, you include a certified cheque or a bank draft that your real estate brokerage holds while negotiations are finalized when you offer to purchase a property. If your offer is accepted, your deposit is held in your Realtor’s trust account. If your offer is accepted and you commit to buying the property, your deposit is transferred to the lawyer’s trust account and included in your downpayment. If you aren’t able to reach an agreement, the deposit is refunded to you. However, if you commit to buying the property and don’t complete the transaction, your deposit could be forfeit to the seller. Your deposit goes ahead of the downpayment but makes up part of the downpayment. The amount you put forward as a deposit when negotiating the terms of a purchase contract is arbitrary, meaning there is no predefined or standard amount. Instead, it’s best to discuss this with your real estate professional as your deposit can be a negotiating factor in and of itself. A larger deposit may give you a better chance of having your offer accepted in a competitive situation. It also puts you on the hook for more if something changes down the line and you cannot complete the purchase. What is a downpayment? Your downpayment refers to the initial payment you make when buying a property through mortgage financing. In Canada, the minimum downpayment amount is 5%, as lenders can only lend up to 95% of the property’s value. Securing mortgage financing with anything less than 20% down is only made possible through mortgage default insurance. You can source your downpayment from your resources, the sale of a property, an RRSP, a gift from a family member, or borrowed funds. Example scenario Let’s say that you are looking to purchase a property worth $400k. You’re planning on making a downpayment of 10% or $40k. When you make the initial offer to buy the property, you put forward $10k as a deposit your real estate brokerage holds in their trust account. If everything checks out with the home inspection and you’re satisfied with financing, you can remove all conditions. Your $10k deposit is transferred to the lawyer’s trust account, where will add the remaining $30k for the downpayment. With your $40k downpayment made, once you sign the mortgage documents and cover the legal and closing costs, the lender will forward the remaining 90% in the form of a mortgage registered to your title, and you have officially purchased the property! If you have any questions about the difference between the deposit and the downpayment or any other mortgage terms, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.
QUICK LINKS
HEAD OFFICE
FOLLOW US
Copyright © 2023 DLC Canadian Mortgage Experts. All Rights Reserved | Privacy & Content Policy